The Mexican Grand Prix on Sunday evening promises to be a spectacle; even for Max Verstappen, who was not very hopeful on Saturday, there are glimmers of hope. This preview discusses these, as well as Lando Norris‘s fear, the threat of Ferrari, and why this circuit poses more than one challenge – from the long run to turn 1 to conditions that influence strategy more than usual.
Glimmers of Hope for Verstappen
Max Verstappen sounded gloomy after the qualification: “If the car doesn’t work on Saturday, it won’t on Sunday either.” The Dutchman has been struggling with grip and balance all weekend in Mexico, which is frustrating. Yet, there are glimmers of hope. For instance, Verstappen starts on the so-called clean side of the grid. This is where the cars drive during their laps, giving starting positions 1, 3, 5, 7, etc., an advantage over the ‘even’ numbers. The second and subsequent numbers start on the ‘dirty’ side of the dusty Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez. With a run of 830 meters from pole to the braking point for turn 1, this is a significant advantage when pulling away.
Furthermore, Helmut Marko stated that a podium should still be realistic for Verstappen, perhaps because there might be more grip during the race as the track accumulates more rubber. The team expects the RB21 to balance better with a heavier fuel load, a familiar pattern this season.
Verstappen himself points out that the long runs in none of the training sessions were really good and that the warm weather also plays a role in tire management. The RB21 doesn’t handle overheating well, Verstappen’s exceptional driving skills and abilities must compensate for this. So, who knows, the Dutchman might still pull off a surprise, perhaps a podium from P5. And with possibly a different strategy and a good start, the race could turn out to be more successful for the Dutchman than expected.
The Red Threat to Norris: Ferrari
Surprisingly, Verstappen might find some silver linings in Ferrari. The fact that Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton qualified their cars in P2 and P3 was unexpected. This brings Ferrari’s first Grand Prix victory within reach, as well as Hamilton’s first podium finish of the season in red (indeed, we’re not counting the sprint victory in China).
What does this mean for Verstappen? Two things: firstly, the hope that a car can be surprisingly fast when you least expect it – something we’ve seen quite often this season. But more importantly, Ferrari will do everything to win on Sunday. This is the Italians’ chance to win a race, so Norris will have both Leclerc and Hamilton hot on his heels, right from the first turn. You can bet that Leclerc and Hamilton will go for it; how much will Norris dare to counter in the duels?
The Brit needs to catch up with World Championship leader and teammate Oscar Piastri, who starts in seventh place. And Norris can pull ahead of Verstappen, who starts from P5. But what risk is Norris willing to take? That’s a question he’ll be asking himself, as will the team. The uncertainty that comes with this poses a threat, for instance during a hectic run to the first turn and at moments when strategic decisions need to be made during the race.
Piastri in a Difficult Position
For Piastri, it will undoubtedly be an evening of patience and precision. The Australian may be starting seventh, but he has the advantage of a car that appeared very consistent in the long runs. Just as Max Verstappen can see some positives despite the rather uninspiring sessions so far, the same applies to Piastri. He won’t directly take the Dutchman as his reference, as the McLaren is faster than the Red Bull car. But Piastri knows: getting past is the first challenge… He will have to take risks, as the Australian wants to move towards Norris as quickly as possible.
With his English teammate only a handful of points behind the championship leader, Piastri knows that his lead could significantly shrink or, worse still, disappear like snow in the Mexican sun. The Australian is clearly not happy with how the MCL39 is performing this weekend, unlike Norris. Therefore, the catch-up race he has to make becomes a race within a race. Hopefully, that goes well, with potentially early pit stops and a recipe for making daring – and thus possibly wrong – tactical choices.
Conclusion
The Mexican GP promises to be more than just a fight for victory. In the warm, thin air, it’s a strategic chess game where Verstappen must survive, Norris has to defend, and Piastri faces a catch-up race.
And furthermore…
…the circuit in Mexico City is 4304 meters long
…there are 71 laps on the schedule
…there were 91 overtakes last year
…a pit stop including entry and exit averages 21.9 seconds
…the chance of a safety car is 43 percent
