In the past four races – including Saturday’s sprint in Austin – Max Verstappen has already taken 49 points off Oscar Piastri‘s lead in the World Championship. Weather permitting, the Dutchman is set to further close the gap in the United States Grand Prix on Sunday. This is due to three factors; read our preview to find out more.
1. Abundance of Data versus Lack of Data
Is the RB21 faster than the MCL39 at the Circuit Of The Americas? That remains to be seen. To stay ahead of McLaren in a Grand Prix – a different challenge than sprinting nineteen laps – Red Bull still had some work to do before the race.
However, he knows that his team has a significant advantage: the sprint race provided a wealth of useful data. And that’s something McLaren lacks due to both drivers meeting their Waterloo in the opening round on Saturday. This could be a potentially crucial advantage for Verstappen over Norris and Piastri.
2. No Pressure versus High Pressure
Verstappen still has a chance to become champion; it’s a hot topic both inside and outside the paddock, and opinions remain divided. But the Dutchman himself feels no pressure. He just wants to race, win where possible, and perform at his best in the run-up to a new season.
The situation is different for Norris and Piastri. They know that McLaren has the best car over the entire season this year, and with the new rules next year, that’s uncertain. So, for both teammates, this is not only their first chance at the world title, but in the worst-case scenario, it could also be their last. Who knows. Either way, the pressure seems to be affecting the pair.
Then there’s also the pressure on each other, as teammates fighting for the top prize. And thirdly, the four-time world champion who is now breathing down their necks: the difference between Piastri and Verstappen is 55 points, between Norris and Verstappen 33.
World Championship leader Piastri sees his lead shrinking race after race, and today he feels the pressure not to lose (even more) ground to Verstappen. And that from P6. Meanwhile, Norris knows that Verstappen is also chasing him, but he also feels the pressure to capitalize on Piastri’s poor performance at the moment.
3. Peak Form versus No Form
The latter brings us to the form of the day, or of the week, month, or even the second half of the season. Verstappen is ‘hot’, the Dutchman is soaring. He gained 49 points on Piastri in the last four races (10 in Italy, 25 in Azerbaijan, 6 in Singapore, and 8 in the sprint race on Saturday). Verstappen is in peak form and is driving like in his best days.
On the other hand, Piastri has completely lost his form. This is partly due to mistakes he has been making recently – such as in Baku, where he crashed his car into the wall during both the qualifying and the race. Gone is the cool-headed driver from earlier this season. And then the team also makes mistakes, including during pit stops. But above all, there is the ongoing uncertainty and debate about McLaren’s so-called papaya rules, where Lando Norris and he get equal opportunities. This also caused a stir in Singapore and a dent in the confidence of, for example, Piastri.
“At the moment, I’m not comfortable in the car,” the championship leader admitted somewhat despondently on Saturday. Piastri has lost ‘it’ for now, his form is hard to find. And that is 180 degrees different from Verstappen.
Conclusion
Although a crash, touché, human error, or some technical mishap in Formula 1 can never be ruled out, the conclusion is that Verstappen, as the pole sitter on Sunday, has a golden opportunity to further close the gap on Norris (starting second) and Piastri (starting sixth). The McLaren duo is limping towards the climax of the title fight, stumbling over each other’s feet. Meanwhile, Verstappen is approaching with giant strides. And he’s wearing those boots this weekend in Austin as well.
And furthermore…
…the race starts at 21:00 Dutch time
…the circuit in Austin is 5513 meters long
…the US GP consists of 56 laps
…it’s 250 meters from pole to braking point at turn 1
…there were 91 overtakes during the race last year
…a pit stop on average takes a total of 20.6 seconds
…the chance of a safety car is statistically 29 percent
