Max Verstappen will need to break the trend this Sunday if he wants to claim victory in the Italian Grand Prix. His exceptional skills won’t be the issue, which is just as well, because two statistics in Monza are decidedly not in his favor. This, a spicy battle between Norris and Piastri, Antonelli’s hope, and more in the preview.
1. A Heavy Task for Max Verstappen from Pole Position
Max Verstappen is starting a Grand Prix from pole position for the fifth time this season. Of the previous four times, he only won once from that position, which was in Japan. In Saudi Arabia and Miami, he had to concede victory to Oscar Piastri, while in England, Lando Norris took the win. He needs to break this trend.
The same applies to another trend, namely that the polesitter in the Italian Grand Prix more often than not does not end up as the winner on the podium. Starting from pole position has only led to victory in 25 of the 75 Italian GPs.
Hope springs eternal, and that’s the speed of the RB21 in Monza. Verstappen and Red Bull Racing managed to keep all rivals behind them in the qualification with their setup. And how. Verstappen not only achieved the fastest qualification time ever in Monza (1:18.792), but also drove the fastest lap ever in F1 history with an average speed of 264.681 kilometers per hour.
However, this doesn’t guarantee anything: overtaking is quite possible in Monza. “And the races have often proven difficult for us this season. We have the McLarens behind us, we have to give it our all, and then we’ll see what that yields,” Verstappen said on Saturday after the qualification.
The Battle Between Norris and Piastri
If Verstappen gets off to a good start, he could easily pull ahead of the men behind him, even if they potentially have faster cars. Norris and Piastri are not only teammates at McLaren, but also title rivals. Norris, starting from P2, is determined to make up for his 34-point deficit to World Championship leader Piastri. The Australian, on the other hand, will be hoping to capitalize on any skirmishes between Norris and Verstappen for P1. The Brit needs to win to truly catch up to Piastri, but the Australian knows his teammate will have a hard time overtaking Verstappen.
A collision that takes both of them out of the race? It’s not unthinkable. The tension in the World Championship increases slightly every weekend.
Will Leclerc or Antonelli Bring Joy to Italy?
With a five-place grid penalty for Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc will have to carry the torch for Ferrari. Will last year’s race winner delight the Italian fans once again? Ferrari is a dangerous outsider.
But what about Kimi Antonelli? Yes, he has been disappointing so far in the European part of the season with just one measly point. And yes, he made a few mistakes this weekend. But Mercedes seems to have things more under control than many thought. And with the pressure on the front-runners, Antonelli could sneak onto the podium from P6.
4. The Strategy? Boring!
Don’t expect miracles from the strategy on Sunday afternoon. Unless there are crazy phases in the race due to safety cars, failed pit stops, or heavy penalties. No one should expect rain in sunny and warm Monza, so it seems likely that it will be a ‘simple’ one-stop strategy for all drivers.
And that’s what they think at tire supplier Pirelli as well:
And Beyond…
…the track is 5793 meters long
…there will be 53 laps
…the chance of a safety car is 50 percent
…it’s 472 meters from start to braking point at turn 1
…there were 71 overtakes last year
…a total pit stop in Monza averages 24.3 seconds
…the race starts at 13:00 UTC
