Lando Norris has the potential to become the world champion in Qatar today, but a considerable amount of proverbial water must still flow under the bridge. His teammate and rival, Oscar Piastri, has his own interests at stake, creating a (yet again) delicate situation for McLaren. This could potentially pave the way for a dream scenario for Max Verstappen.
Norris as World Champion…?
The situation is straightforward: if Norris has at least a 26-point lead over Piastri and a minimum of 25 points over Verstappen after today, he will be the new world champion. In other words, the Brit needs to gain four points on his teammate and finish ahead of the Dutchman. With Piastri on pole, Norris will inevitably have to overtake him. This will be quite a challenge on a circuit where overtaking is not an easy task. Learn more about the 2023 FIA Formula One World Championship.
The McLaren Dilemma…
Norris is aware that he can still become the champion in the final race in Abu Dhabi. This means he doesn’t need to risk everything to outsmart Piastri in Qatar. With his current 22-point lead over his rival, Norris can probably afford to lose a few points. However, he is unlikely to think this way, understandably. Technical issues can let a driver down, even in Abu Dhabi, so you want to build as comfortable a margin as possible. One might say, take the risk. And yes, it could go wrong. But Norris can still afford this compared to Piastri.
Consider this: if Norris attacks Piastri, the Australian may choose to defend himself fiercely. But if both drivers crash out, Piastri won’t gain any points. So, he must weigh how far he wants to go in his battle with Norris. Norris has less to lose from a joint exit than his teammate. The only downside for Norris in this scenario is that it heavily depends on where Verstappen finishes…
Dream Scenario for Verstappen
Herein lies the crux; Verstappen is the thorn in the side of the McLaren title fight. Two teammates clashing, as one needs to catch up (Lando Norris) and the other doesn’t want to lose too much of his lead (Norris). This is precisely the dream scenario for Max Verstappen. He can then, as the ‘laughing third’, catch up on both. In the best-case scenario, this happens because they both drop out. But he could also potentially outsmart them in a duel based on speed.
Realistic? Perhaps not very, but the eternal optimists among you will not mind. It is also not unthinkable that the race could unfold as follows:
Piastri and Norris push each other so hard in the first stint that their tires wear out faster than intended. Verstappen can then attack with somewhat fresher tires, especially if a safety car were to appear at the right moment and the field closes up. But apart from that, an internal McLaren duel could play into Verstappen’s hands anyway. So much so that he takes the win and thus catches up, even if Norris and Piastri do finish.
Conclusion?
Are there countless other scenarios possible? Of course. Never a dull moment in Formula 1, right? And moreover, this season it has often happened that you think a race weekend will unfold in a certain way, only to find out on Sunday afternoon that it often turns out differently.
And furthermore…
…the drivers will complete 57 laps
…the circuit is 5419 meters long
…Max Verstappen won there last year
…the chance of a safety car is 67 percent
…Verstappen became champion in Qatar in 2023 (sprint race)
