If there’s one edition of the Monaco Grand Prix that promises chaos due to a multitude of possible strategic choices, it’s this year’s. At least, on paper. Or will it be a case of ‘everyone did their thing and everything stayed the same?’ Sit back and relax, as this preview offers a glimpse into the many race scenarios, including a possible advantage for Max Verstappen.
Strategy due to two mandatory pit stops
The exact impact of the mandatory two pit stops in Monaco remains to be seen. However, it’s likely to increase the entertainment value. Given the low tyre degradation in the principality, you could – as was the case last year – potentially stop in the opening phase and then complete the race. Exactly as everyone did after the red flag in the first round. However, this won’t be possible this year due to the mandatory second stop. But what can be done?
The answer: a whole lot. “And no one knows exactly what’s going to happen, even as a tyre supplier we have no idea,” was the telling statement from Pirelli’s Mario Isola this weekend in Monaco. It’s certain that every driver awaits two pit stops, during which they will have used two different compounds, spread over three sets. So, a set of tyres that you change in round 1, you can’t suddenly put back on at the second stop. This also explains why drivers and teams have at least something left of all tyres, often both new and used. See the following scheme:
The choice is vast, but what is wisdom? The strategy experts of the teams have been racking their brains all week, especially after Saturday’s qualification. It also plays a role whether teammates can mean something. Here’s an overview of some possibilities.
Advantage Verstappen
Max Verstappen, for example, could have an advantage over the competition at McLaren and Ferrari. They have two drivers in the top three and top seven respectively, so sacrificing one driver strategically for the other is almost impossible within those teams. The situation is different at Red Bull. Yuki Tsunoda, starting from P12, can do a favour for his teammate Verstappen (starting fourth).
“The team will not hesitate to let the Japanese driver create a gap that Nico Hülkenberg can take advantage of with his pit stop strategy. Whether and how this works is a matter of debate. But where the other top teams probably won’t even explore the possibility for fear of internal drama, Red Bull might be able to gain an advantage for Verstappen.
Chaos, Part 1
The big question is: do you stop immediately, and perhaps even twice? It’s possible, in theory. Make the first stop in the opening round, put medium or soft tires on the car, and then stop again immediately for the hard tire and finish the race. It would be the ultimate gamble, especially for drivers at the back of the field. But perhaps it’s too much of a good thing.
It would be unusual not to get a safety car somewhere amidst the usual chaos in Monaco. Therefore, it seems advisable for teams to perhaps make the first stop immediately, but save the second one for a few (or many) laps later, for example by waiting for a safety car. Yes, says one. No, says another. Because the time lost due to one or even two early pit stops is immediately made up by driving in clean air.
On the other hand, the success of such a strategy also depends on how many drivers do it. Because if everyone does it, you don’t gain anything. Compare it to a traffic jam. If you don’t want to be in it, you leave half an hour earlier. If everyone does that, you’re still all in the traffic jam. Just half an hour earlier.
So it’s a gamble, watching what the competition is planning. And gambling is traditionally more of a thing for teams in the backfield. It can work out well and even result in a very special outcome. So don’t be surprised if Nico Hülkenberg suddenly ends up on the podium or the Alpines finish in the top five; we’re just saying.
Much will depend on when the safety car comes onto the track. That’s going to happen, it can hardly be avoided in narrow Monaco, especially with a handful of rookies in the field. The question for the drivers at the front is whether you dare to wait for a safety car and how long you want to do that. You don’t want to make your second pit stop at the end of the race, when everyone else has already been. Making that second stop too early can also cause a problem, as mentioned. And… which tire do you actually start with? Soft if you want to stop quickly. Hard if you want to drive longer (Tsunoda?) and thus hold up the rest afterwards for your teammate.
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Chaos, Part 2
What if teams – let’s take McLaren as an example – try to get both drivers into the pits at the same time? This is always a possibility, a so-called ‘double-stack’ is not a new concept. But behold, an extra reason for chaos in Monaco: if a team wants to bring in two cars at the same time and others logically try to do the same… chaos reigns! The narrow pit lane will create a queue, possibly even extending beyond the entrance of the pits. If this happens, expect the race management to wave the red flag, introducing a new dynamic to the race.
Then there are those who say: you can also pit twice during a safety car situation that lasts a few laps. Technically correct, that’s allowed. So, a team could gamble on this. But does it guarantee success and advantage? It could also backfire and put you at a disadvantage.
In short: these and many other possibilities and considerations make choosing the right strategy on Sunday afternoon in Monaco a real challenge. It will be interesting to see who makes which choice and how it pans out. It could be a golden move to increase the entertainment value in Monaco, or it could be a major disappointment. But the anticipation is no less exciting – and the headaches for the strategy experts are just as intense.
Chaos, Part 3
Apart from the strategy, there is always another concern for chaos in Monaco: the first corner. Formula 1 drivers generally avoid this in Monaco. But Sunday might be different. Polesitter Lando Norris will do everything to maintain his first place, while home favorite Charles Leclerc has nothing to lose. The latter will go all out from P2 in the first corner. This could end in tears for the duo. The competitors in row 2 and beyond would do well to let the pair battle it out in the first corner. Otherwise, a multi-car crash could occur. Chaos in the first corner is far from ruled out on Sunday.
And furthermore…
…Fernando Alonso hopes to finally score points this season
…fourteen of the last twenty GPs in Monaco were won from pole position
…the Monaco circuit is 3337 meters long
…the race consists of 78 laps
