If Max Verstappen wants to vie for a podium finish (or even a win) from P6 in Azerbaijan this afternoon, a strong start could be more crucial than ever. This is inferred from his own words: he anticipates more issues with his car towards the end of the race than at the beginning. Find out why Piastri is a bigger favorite than Leclerc, and why you shouldn’t rule out Norris in our preview.
For the first time since last year’s GP Miami (33 races ago!), Max Verstappen is starting behind his teammate Sergio Pérez. The Dutchman drove sublimely to victory then, a win that clearly established the pecking order and set the tone for the rest of the season. The same could very well happen today with regards to 2024.
For the eternal optimists: all of Red Bull’s victories in Baku came from a starting position that wasn’t on the first row. This offers perspective, at least theoretically. Winning, however, is undoubtedly a bridge too far in practice – the balance in the RB20 has improved, but the problems are far from resolved.
Lighter Car = More Problems
Verstappen could, for the first time in weeks, extend his lead at the top of the championship instead of seeing it shrink. His pursuer, Lando Norris (62 points behind), is only starting in sixteenth place (it was even P17, until Pierre Gasly’s disqualification). Regardless, there’s a real chance that Verstappen will finish ahead of his British friend and rival. In that case, he would strike a significant blow in the title fight.
But let’s return to the issues with the RB20: the balance is still not what it should be, and the handling is unpredictable. The grip on the Baku street circuit is equally unpredictable. Red Bull made some changes to Verstappen’s setup for the qualifying, which didn’t work out. “Unfortunately, it went the wrong way,” he says, reflecting on that choice. “And we can’t change it again for the race, of course, that’s not allowed.”
Max Verstappen’s Race Prospects
Despite the challenges, Max Verstappen’s race is far from hopeless or futile. The issues with the car, such as the bouncing that Verstappen reported on Saturday in Azerbaijan, are likely to be less severe at the start of the race. The car is heavier then and less susceptible to the usual troubles that the RB20 often brings. “There’s more fuel in the car at the start, but at some point it gets lighter and then the problems will probably return,” Verstappen tells the gathered Dutch press in Baku. In other words, the first part of the race offers the most potential for a good result. Perhaps Verstappen can lay a foundation for the rest of the race with a strong opening phase.
Best Race Pace
For the fourth time in a row, Charles Leclerc has secured pole position in Baku and won the Grand Prix of Italy. It’s a great time to be Charles Leclerc in the world of Formula 1. Can he and Ferrari secure their second consecutive victory? Team boss Fred Vasseur is not counting his chickens just yet. And what does the race pace tell us from the free practice on Friday? As you might guess, McLaren is the fastest team of all. Although? Red Bull is listed… But that’s without the changes made on Saturday, which are likely to have backfired for the race. Regardless, McLaren definitely has a better race pace than Ferrari (which explains Vasseur’s earlier caution).
McLaren’s Race Pace: A Double-Edged Sword for Lando Norris
McLaren’s impressive race pace is a mixed blessing for Lando Norris. On one hand, it’s good news, but on the other hand, it’s a disappointment. The British driver could have scored well from one of the front rows. However, scoring points in Baku is quite possible. Max Verstappen had already warned not to underestimate him on the eve of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. You can bet that Norris will be eager to make up for his disappointing qualifying result.
Oscar Piastri: The Favourite for Victory
However, there remains one major favourite for the win, and that’s Oscar Piastri. An interesting detail: there was a lot of talk about team orders and helping Norris in his pursuit of Verstappen in the drivers’ championship before the race weekend in Azerbaijan. But given the starting grid, that won’t be the case on Sunday.
The Australian can now go for the win himself. This is particularly important for the team: McLaren (438 points) is not only hot on the heels of leader Red Bull (446) in the constructors’ championship, but Ferrari (407) is also still very much in the running. All eyes are on Piastri at the papaya brigade.
Or… will McLaren be outdone by Ferrari, just like in Monza?
Other Noteworthy Points…
…Oliver Bearman could become the first driver to score points for two different constructors in his first two F1 races (he scored points for Ferrari in Jeddah)
…Ferrari has never won from pole in Azerbaijan
…a lap in Baku is 6003 meters long
…the race consists of 51 laps
